Climate Change and Conflict

With Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and Cody J. Schmidt

Abstract:

Conflict scholars examine the relationship between climate variability and conflict onset, with an emphasis on connections between precipitation and temperature shifts/shocks and intrastate violence. While empirical findings in this literature are mixed, we know less about how climate changes increase the risks for interstate conflicts between countries. This project studies climate variability using the issue approach to world politics, connecting deviations and volatility in temperature and precipitation to the onset and militarization of diplomatic conflicts involving territorial, maritime, and river areas. We argue that climate variability increases interstate conflict risks by intensifying the salience and uncertainty of contested geopolitical areas.

This project was presented at the 2019 Peace Science Society Conference in Manhattan, KS, and has since led to several publications. “Climate Bones of Contention” (with Cody J. Schmidt and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell) was published in the Journal of Peace Research in 2021 and won ISA Midwest’s Frank J. Klingberg Best Paper Award. A follow-up study, “Disasters and the Dynamics of Interstate Rivalry” (with Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Cody J. Schmidt, and Yufan Yang), appeared in the Journal of Peace Research in 2022. “Contested Boundaries in Changing Climates” (with Sojeong Lee) extends this work to precipitation variability and was published in Environment and Security in 2025. Most recently, “Global and Regional Climate Modes Modulate Armed Conflict Risk” (with Tyler E. Bagwell, Sylvia G. Dee, and coauthors) examines how El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole climate modes shape armed conflict risk, forthcoming in PNAS.